How Will Donald Trump’s Tariffs Affect Dollar Strength? Will the US Enter a Recession? Here’s the Bank of America View

The strength of the US dollar may not be sustainable if US President Donald Trump moves forward with sweeping tariffs, according to currency analysts at Bank of America.

In a recent report, Athanasios Vamvakidis and Claudio Piron noted that targeted tariffs on specific products were already expected by the market, but broader trade restrictions would be a “negative surprise.” They warn that new tariffs could lead to more uncertainty, especially given concerns about a possible economic slowdown in the United States.

“We believe the risks are balanced ahead of next week’s deadline. The market already expects tariffs on certain products. Comprehensive tariffs would be a negative surprise. The dollar is not expected to continue to strengthen when comprehensive tariffs are implemented, and the market is still concerned about the slowdown in the US economy,” they said. They also noted that logistics issues could delay the implementation of new tariffs and leave room for potential negotiations.

Trump’s tariff strategy has sparked widespread concern among economic and business groups, particularly in Japan. On March 26, Trump signed a memorandum at the White House imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars, set to take effect on April 2. The move has drawn criticism from international trade experts and automakers who fear significant disruptions to global supply chains.

Such protectionist policies are unlikely to produce economic benefits and could instead pose risks to the broader global economy, warned Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. “The US tariff policy has no positive impact and will bring risks to the global economy,” Kumano said.

*This is not investment advice.

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